US Dollar Forecast Bearish on Forex Sentiment Extremes


EURUSD – Euro Forecast Turns Bullish Against Dollar
• GBPUSD – British Pound Sentiment Points to Gains
• USDJPY – Japanese Yen Outlook Remains Bullish
• USDCHF – Swiss Franc Forecast Positive
• USDCAD – Canadian Dollar Forecast to Gain Further
• GBPJPY – Sentiment-based Bias Points to Losses
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Forex trading crowds have bought aggressively into US Dollar declines against the Euro, British Pound, Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc, and Canadian Dollar. Our contrarian algorithmic trading systems have accordingly grown aggressively short the downtrodden US currency, and current downward USD momentum shows little hope of slowing. Last week we reported that other Forex positioning measures showed US Dollar sentiment at bearish extremes—hinting at imminent reversal. Yet we were clearly premature in our call, as market sentiment can and obviously does remain extreme for extended periods of time. Given current retail crowd positioning, we see little scope for a substantive Dollar reversal through upcoming trade.


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